TOKYO (AP) — According to its official statements, North Korea is ready to go to the brink. But how serious are Pyongyang’s threats?

This week, new U.N. sanctions in response to the North’s successful December rocket launch elicited a furious response from Pyongyang: strong hints a third nuclear test is coming, along with bigger and better long-range missiles and “all-out action” against its “sworn enemy,” the United States.

In the face of international condemnation, North Korea can usually be counted on for such flights of rhetorical pique. If the past is any indication, its threats of war are overblown. But the chances it will conduct another nuclear test are high. And it is gaining ground in its missile program, experts say, though still a long way from seriously threatening the U.S. mainland.